Russia is engaging in talks with Syrian jihadi rebels to maintain control over its critical military bases, as the Assad regime crumbles and Moscow scrambles to preserve its influence in the region.
At a Glance
- Russia is negotiating with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) to retain control of its Syrian military bases
- Talks are focusing on combating ISIS and ensuring security for Russian assets
- No decisions have been made yet regarding the bases’ future
- Satellite images suggest Russian forces may be preparing to depart from some locations
- Western officials show informal interest in maintaining Russian presence as a deterrent against extremism
Russia’s Diplomatic Tightrope in Syria
Russia, becoming increasingly isolated from the civilized world, has found itself negotiating with the very forces it once opposed in Syria. As the Assad regime falls, Moscow is now in direct talks with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the rebel group that overthrew Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad. The Kremlin’s primary objective? To retain control over its strategically vital military bases in the region.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov has confirmed “direct contact” with HTS, describing the negotiations as constructive. The talks center on Russia’s desire to maintain its air and naval bases, particularly the Tartus naval facility and Khmeimim air base. These installations serve as critical logistics hubs for Russia’s activities in the Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa.
NEW | Russia has reportedly reached an agreement with select elements of the Syrian opposition about control over Russian military bases in Syria, but it remains unclear if the alleged agreement ensures the security of Russia's bases in Syria in the long-term. (1/12) pic.twitter.com/nm8OoLYvEL
— Critical Threats (@criticalthreats) December 13, 2024
The Stakes for Russia’s Middle East Strategy
The importance of these bases to Russia’s geopolitical strategy cannot be overstated, providing Moscow with a strategic foothold in the Mediterranean and serving as projection points for Russian power in the region. However, the future of these installations remains uncertain, with Bogdanov stating that no decisions have been made yet regarding their status.
“Russia’s withdrawal from Syria appears to be picking up steam, though it remains unclear whether Russia will have to completely abandon Khmeimim air base and the Tartus naval logistics facility. Reports suggest that Moscow is angling to retain a presence at Khmeimim and Tartus, hoping to exploit divisions in Syria and its ties to various local actors. Washington should use its leverage with the new authorities in Damascus to encourage them to show Russia the door,” Russia Program Deputy Director John Hardie said.
Adding to the complexity of the situation, satellite imagery has indicated that most Russian ships and planes have already departed from these bases following the fall of Damascus to rebel forces. This development raises questions about Russia’s actual military capabilities in the region and its leverage in negotiations with HTS.
The Shifting Landscape of Syrian Politics
The ongoing talks between Russia and HTS mark a significant shift in the Syrian conflict’s dynamics. Moscow, once a staunch supporter of Assad’s regime, now finds itself seeking dialogue with the very forces it previously fought against.
But what else can they do? Assad is…gone.
“A continuing Russian presence in Syria would be a monument to impunity. Russian planes bombed hospitals behind rebel lines while the Kremlin did all in its power to protect Assad from accountability for his numerous atrocities. Perhaps Russia can entice Syria’s new rulers to make a deal — it would still be shameful,” David Adesnik of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies said.
Interestingly, Western officials have shown informal interest in maintaining the status quo regarding Russian bases, viewing them as a potential deterrent against extremism. This tacit approval adds another layer of complexity to an already intricate geopolitical puzzle.
As negotiations continue, the future of Russia’s military presence in Syria remains uncertain.
But siding with Jihadis is something we probably shouldn’t be surprised by.
