Just How Much HIGHER Can Egg Prices Go?

Egg prices in the Midwest have cracked a new record high, leaving consumers scrambling for affordable options as the holiday baking season approaches.

At a Glance

  • Midwest egg prices hit a record $5.67 per dozen, surpassing the previous high of $5.46 from December 2022
  • A severe bird flu outbreak has resulted in the culling of over 111 million birds since February 2022
  • The U.S. egg-laying flock has decreased by about 3%, leading to a 4% drop in egg production
  • High holiday demand is compounding the supply shortage, driving prices even higher
  • Climate change and extreme weather are contributing to the spread of avian flu

Bird Flu Outbreak Devastates Poultry Populations

The Midwest is experiencing an unprecedented surge in egg prices due to a severe bird flu outbreak that has ravaged poultry farms across the region. Since February 2022, over 111 million birds have been culled in an effort to contain the spread of the virus. This health crisis has had a significant impact on egg production, with the U.S. egg-laying flock decreasing by approximately 3% and overall egg production dropping by 4%.

The latest wave of the outbreak has been particularly devastating. Since mid-October alone, 17 million egg-laying hens and pullets have been culled, marking one of the worst phases of the bird flu outbreak since its inception. This drastic reduction in the number of laying hens has created a severe shortage in egg supply, just as demand typically increases for the holiday season.

Record-Breaking Prices and Holiday Demand

The combination of reduced supply and increased demand has pushed egg prices to unprecedented levels. In the Midwest, a dozen eggs now costs about $5.67, surpassing the previous record high of $5.46 set in December 2022. This price spike is particularly noticeable as we enter the holiday baking season, a time when egg consumption traditionally increases.

While the current prices are alarming, it’s worth noting that they remain below the peak seen two years ago. In January 2023, the average price for a dozen eggs in U.S. cities reached $4.82. By October 2023, it had decreased to $3.37, still significantly higher than the $2.07 recorded in October 2022.

Factors Contributing to the Crisis

The current egg price crisis is not solely due to the bird flu outbreak. Extreme weather conditions are displacing wild birds, contributing to the spread of avian flu. Additionally, the shift towards cage-free egg production, particularly in states like California, has further complicated supply issues.

The egg industry is working to rebuild its flocks, but this process temporarily limits egg supplies. On a positive note, the cost of chicken feed has decreased significantly, providing some relief to poultry farmers struggling with the ongoing crisis.