Hoover Institution and Harvard senior fellow Niall Ferguson is confident that history says former President Donald Trump will win the White House in 2024.
While Democrats feel that Trump’s legal battles will derail his 2024 chances, Ferguson believes that thought process is slowly disintegrating.
Each adversity opponents hurl at Trump seems to energize his base, and his poll numbers against potential challengers increase.
Ferguson points to other potential candidates who overcame legal issues and won their respective elections. Among the best know winner when facing negative issues is Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s Prime Minister.
Other lessor-known political leaders who won are Malaysia’s Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.
Ferguson feels there’s little likelihood of Trump being tried and incarcerated during the 2024 election process. Trump has a sizable lead in hypothetical polls over declared and undeclared Republican candidates.
Inflation, the southern border crisis, rampant crime across the US, and the economy will likely all work in Trump’s favor.
The GOP has traditionally rubber-stamped the primary leader to go on and represent the party in the general election. The constant persecution of Trump will more than likely win votes from independents.
Traditionally, in past presidential races, the post-recession incumbent is often the loser in November, and the Republican frontrunner comes out on top.
According to a Morning Consult poll, the former president has 61 percent of GOP supporters compared to undeclared Florida Governor Ron DeSantis at 19 percent. While Trump is gaining support, DeSantis reached the lowest level of support since the beginning of the tracking.
An announcement of a presidential run by Governor DeSantis is expected in the coming days or weeks. He’s been making presidential stops in the early primary states and meeting with world leaders abroad.
Other candidates for the 2024 top spot are businessman Vivek Ramaswamy and former VP Mike Pence, both polling at just 5 percent.
If the election was held today, polls are showing Biden would beat DeSantis, but Trump would best Biden.