In a recent Sunday article, CNN indicated that the chance of former President Donald Trump reclaiming the White House remains a “genuine possibility.” The network noted that Trump seems to be in a stronger position to win the general election now than in the 2020 electoral cycle. Harry Enten, the article’s author, refutes the theory of critics who believe Trump would be the favorable choice of the radical left, while this position is dismissed by many conservatives, especially in the face of the Biden Department of Justice (DOJ) ongoing investigations into the ex-president and GOP frontrunner.
Trump labeled the indictments and charges “harassment” and “election interference.” Trump further criticized Biden’s apparent lack of scrutiny, stating that the current president had significantly more documentation than him. He referred to the situation as a “two-tier system of injustice” and described the country as dire.
Despite the ongoing investigations against Trump, CNN maintains that “Trump is not only in an exceptional position for a non-incumbent to win the Republican nomination, but he is also better positioned to win the general election than during the 2020 and much of the 2016 cycle.” Trump’s popularity in the polls, where he secures majority support in the primary on national and state-level polls, is used to back this assertion.
Recent poll results, including a New York Times/Siena poll, saw Trump leading the GOP primary field, gaining 54 percent support from Republicans. This leaves him 37 points ahead of DeSantis. CNN highlights the rarity of a candidate overcoming a deficit more significant than 30 points at this stage in the election. Furthermore, Trump’s stronghold in early primary states such as Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina undermine his competitors’ prospects of closing the gap.
Reflecting on past polls, CNN notes that although some candidates have recovered from deficits larger than 10 points to secure the nomination, none have recovered from a 30-point deficit. CNN also compared potential head-to-head matchups between Trump and President Biden. Despite the tight results, the network suggests swing states will decide the 2024 presidential election.
CNN concluded the article by reminding Democrats that general election polling at this stage does not indicate the outcome, hinting at the potential for shifts in support. However, they reiterated their initial warning that the possibility of Trump returning to the White House remains “very real.”